The KF-21 stands at a strategic crossroads: a proven fighter waiting for the funding and decisions needed to fully take wing.Yet as the program transitions from development to operational deployment, a contradiction has emerged: technical success now collides with fiscal pressure and geopolitical uncertainty, threatening to delay the aircraft’s full induction into frontline service.

Flawless testing, ahead of schedule

According to the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), the final development flight was conducted earlier this month over waters south of Sacheon. Prototype No. 4 successfully completed air-to-air weapons release trials and demanding recovery maneuvers from extreme flight attitudes—key benchmarks for a 4.5-generation fighter.

Test operations were expanded from Sacheon to Seosan, and aerial refueling trials were introduced for the first time in a Korean fighter development program. These advances allowed the KF-21 program to finish two months ahead of schedule.

DAPA plans to conclude system development in the first half of this year, with initial production aircraft delivered to the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) in the second half. Prime Minister Kim Min-seok recently visited the production line at Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), emphasizing the government’s commitment to the program.

Budget pressure slows induction

Despite the technical milestone, funding constraints are now threatening to delay operational deployment. Financial authorities reviewing the mid-term national fiscal plan are reportedly considering pushing completion of the first 40 KF-21 Block I aircraft from 2028 to 2029.

The Air Force is currently pursuing multiple large-scale acquisition programs simultaneously, including fighter upgrades, additional stealth fighters, missile defense systems, transport aircraft, airborne early warning platforms, aerial refueling tankers, and electronic warfare aircraft.

The cost of foreign weapon acquisitions alone is estimated at approximately KRW 15 trillion (about USD 11 billion). The original KF-21 plan allocated KRW 8.384 trillion (around USD 6.2 billion) for development and initial production between 2024 and 2028. However, the annual budget profile has fallen short:

• 2024: KRW 237.2 billion (≈ USD 175 million)

• 2025: KRW 1.149 trillion (≈ USD 850 million)

• 2026: KRW 1.418 trillion (≈ USD 1.05 billion)
  
  

The Air Force requested KRW 2.262 trillion (≈ USD 1.67 billion) for this year, but received KRW 844 billion less (≈ USD 625 million shortfall). As a result, more than KRW 5.579 trillion (≈ USD 4.1 billion) would need to be spent during 2027–2028, significantly increasing the likelihood of schedule delays.

Indonesia: opportunity and uncertainty

Indonesia, the KF-21’s original co-development partner, remains both a potential breakthrough and a lingering risk. After years of uncertainty driven by delayed cost-sharing payments, signs of renewed engagement have emerged.

Defense outlet Janes reported that Indonesia is now considering the purchase of 16 KF-21 Block II fighters, following a closed-door meeting at Indonesia’s Ministry of Defense in Jakarta. Representatives from KAI and PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PTDI) attended the talks.

Central to the discussion was export financing. Jakarta is reportedly seeking support from the Export-Import Bank of Korea to ease fiscal pressure—potentially using financing both to settle outstanding contributions and fund the Block II purchase. Block II aircraft feature full air-to-ground and anti-ship strike capabilities, making them particularly suitable for Indonesia’s vast maritime operating environment.

However, delivery schedules, unit costs, weapons packages, industrial participation, and financing terms remain unresolved, suggesting lengthy negotiations ahead.

A strategic crossroads

Technically, the KF-21 has already passed its test. The remaining question is when—and in what numbers—it will reach frontline service. Budgetary decisions and political choices will determine whether the Boramae becomes a symbol of South Korea’s aerospace self-reliance or a case study in delayed returns from an otherwise successful program.

For now, the KF-21 stands at a strategic crossroads: a proven fighter waiting for the funding and decisions needed to fully take wing.

K-DEFENSE NEWS | Strategic Analysis Desk

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